For the past few weeks, Phillies fans’ heads have been ready to explode with determining whether or not Roy Halladay would be worth the sacrifice of JA Happ. Halladay made himself more expensive, going a complete game versus Boston yesterday and improving to 11-3. Happ is making it harder to give up as he went at least seven innings for the fifth consecutive time yesterday to improve to 7-0. Here is a list of options the Phillies have:
1) Over pay a boat load of good prospects for Halladay.
2) In the over paying, include Happ or Kyle Drabek.
2) Pass on the chance for a Cy Young pitcher to keep the prospects and settle with Pedro Martinez.
In this post, I will go into detail of all three scenarios and where it will leave the Phillies. In conclusion, I will chose the best option.
The Phillies traded Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Dominic Brown, and Jason Knapp for Roy Halladay: This is the dream scenario for the Phillies. They get to keep a hold of Happ and Drabek along with top OF prospect Michael Taylor and catcher Lou Marson. The Jays get two good pitching prospects (but not the Phillies’ best), the short stop prospect they so eagerly wanted in Donald, and a great outfielder in Brown.
The Phillies get the former Cy Young winner and dominant Halladay for the fee of four cheap prospects. There is only one problem with this: it’s not realistic and most likely won’t happen. I would welcome this trade with an open heart but I already know not to get my hopes up as the Jays WANT Happ to be included in the deal.
Also the Phillies have been playing tremendous ball for the past two weeks and don’t want to mess with the team’s chemistry. With their current 6.5 game lead in the division, the Phillies might not need Halladay to help in a race that may not even be close. Also Halladay will need time to adjust playing the NL every start.
I will pass on this scenario.
The Phillies trade Happ/Drabek/both along with other prospects for Halladay: This already sounds like a terrible idea as it is the worst-case scenario. Drabek has some seriously nasty stuff in the minors. He is also only 21 and has the stock to be much better than Cole Hamels. He throws hard and has a filthy breaking ball. He was touted as the best pitcher in this year’s Future Stars Game last week.
Happ is major league ready and proven. He’s 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 6.2 K/9. In his last five starts, he’s gone at least seven innings and has thrown two scoreless outings including one complete game. These two players alone are not worth giving up for Halladay.
I will pass on this scenario as well.
The deadline has past and the Phils do not make a move for Halladay: after the 2010 season (Halladay would be a FA), the Phillies will need to worry about signing Joe Blanton. They will also have to give a new contract to Happ and see Jamie Moyer possibly retire. Pedro Martinez will be gone after 2009 and Hamels will still be in for another year. If the Phillies don’t have Happ, Carrasco, or Drabek to fall back on and also keep Blanton, you will be looking at a very depleted rotation. It is hard to find good pitching in the free agent market unless you’re the Yankees.
Also in the field, Raul Ibanez is 37 and Jayson Werth is 30. Who knows how much longer they will be Phillies. In that case, holding onto Brown, Taylor, and John Mayberry Jr. seem to be smart decisions. Shane Victorino will also be available in the market but he is a player the Phillies will need to hold onto. Catcher can also be a concern so holding onto Marson will be important as well.
Not trading for Halladay is the way to go.