TTB

Blogging about the 5x NL East Champion Phillies

High Expectations for Nostra-Jimmy

-AP Photo

@ScottLauber: Jimmy Rollins says he wants to steal 50 bases, make less than three errors, score 150 runs, hit .300

The bold predictions continue from Jimmy. The numbers he presented are numbers that would make him an MVP candidate. Does Jimmy have that type of production in him? I don’t think so. Can he give the Phillies something reasonably close? Yes he can.

At his best, Rollins is one of the best short stops in baseball. At his worst people wonder why he even leads off. He’s the captain and vocal leader of this team. When he’s playing well, the rest of the team plays well. If Rollins can produce anything similar to what he expects from himself, the Phillies could be having another parade down Broad Street.

Here are the stats J-Roll hopes to accomplish and how likely he is to achieve them:

50 steals: This stat might be a stretch for J-Roll. He has never stolen more than 47 bases in a season (2008) and has nabbed over 40 only four times. An even better stat: Rollins has only attempted to steal 50+ bases in his career twice. The first was in 2001, his first full season as a start when he was 46/54. The other time was 2008 when he was 47/50. Rollins only attempted to steal 39 time last season, being successful 31 times.

Probability: doubtful

Less than 3 errors: Rollins is still one of the best fielding short stops in the game, winning the Gold Glove the past three seasons. Last season he had a career high .990 fielding percentage and a career low six errors. His range factor was unfortunately at a career low of 3.96. He will need to have the best fielding year of his career in order to do so which is very possible.

Probability: possible

150 runs: this is the stat where I think Rollins is stretching too far. His career high was 137 runs in his MVP year fo 2007. I think the highest he could get this season is 120 runs. Rollins scored 100 runs last year despite having a horrible OBP of .296. He will need to get that percentage way up into the .300’s (.344 in his MVP year and a career high .349 in 2008). If he can accomplish the goal I will talk about next, then he has a shot at 130-140. 150 is too much for a player who has never come close to that number.

Probability: highly doubtful

Bat over .300: Rollins can easily do this with a much better year. Granted he’s a career .276 hitter and has never hit over .300 in his career as a full-time starter (.296 is his high in 2007). All he needs is a career year batting and we could see his average, OBP, runs scored, and steals numbers go back up.

Probability: highly possible

2010 predictions: .286 average, 121 runs, 194 hits (40 doubles, 8 triples, 16 homers), 68 RBI’s, .330 OBP.

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