Jays Shopping Halladay

The thin market for pitchers just got thicker. Though I could see Halladay moving fall through, there will be a long line of teams with offers interested in former Cy Young pitcher. The Phillies will be one of those teams. I will show the Philly Inquirer article written by David Murphy with the details and then I will break down each part:

First, let’s take a look at what a team would be getting on the field:
1. Halladay is 32 years old.
2. From 2006-2008 he averaged 17 wins, 7 losses, a 3.22 ERA, 6.2 strikeouts and 1.6 walks per nine innings.
3. This season, he is 10-2 with a 2.79 ERA. Opponents are hitting .250 off of him.
4. Halladay is 17-8 with a 3.02 ERA in 35 career interleague appearances.
5. Halladay was on the disabled list twice with shoulder problems in 2004, and missed the second half of 2005 after breaking his leg. But he has been mostly healthy since, although he did spend time on the DL in 2007 after an appendectomy.
6. The Phillies coaching staff likes Halladay a lot.

Second let’s take a look at his contract:
1. Halladay is in the second year of a three-year, $40 million contract
2. He is scheduled to early $14.25 million this season, which means the Phillies would be adding roughly $7.125 million of payroll for the rest of this season.
3. Halladay is scheduled to earn $15.75 million in 2010, after which he will become a free agent.

Third, let’s take a look at the Phillies’ bargaining chips:
OF Dominic Brown: Rated by Baseball America as the organization’s top prospect, he is currently on the disabled list with a broken finger, but that shouldn’t limit his value. The 21-year-old left-handed hitting corner outfielder was hitting .299 with a .379 On Base Percentage with nine home runs, 38 RBI and 14 stolen bases at Class A Clearwater.

RHP Kyle Drabek: He has been tearing up Double-A Reading, and at just 21 years old may be on the verge of surpassing Carlos Carrasco as the organization’s top pitching prospect.

LHP J.A. Happ: Happ recently recorded his first career complete game shutout against the Blue Jays and has been fantastic the last two seasons. Scouts don’t think he has the upside of a Buchholz, but with five more years of club control and an impressive start to his career, he has value.

INF Jason Donald: He has battled injury and performance issues since his promotion to Triple-A, but he is still viewed as one of the Phillies’ better prospects.

C Lou Marson: Like Donald, has had a so-so year at Triple-A. But, also like Donald, he is the closest thing the organization has to a major-league-ready bat, and he plays a premium position.

OF Michael Taylor: You know all about him already. If you don’t, check out his stats at Double-A Reading.

RHP Carlos Carrasco: Kind of in the Gavin Floyd mold. Great stuff, but he still does not have the major league makeup. Then again, he is only 22 years old.

OF John Mayberry: Has drifted back and forth between the Phils and Lehigh Valley. Big-time power, but won’t be an everyday player in Philly for at least another year-and-a-half.

So here are some packages I’ll throw out there. You tell me which ones wouldn’t make sense for the Phillies:
1. Dominic Brown, J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, John Mayberry Jr.
2. Drabek, Jason Donald or Lou Marson, Andrew Carpenter, Player TBA
3. Drabek, J.A. Happ, John Mayberry Jr., Player TBA
4. Drabek, Michael Taylor, J.A. Happ, Player TBA
5. Dominic Brown, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Kyle Kendrick

First Murphy broke down Halladay. Halladay is 32 but that doesn’t seem to be a factor at all. He will instantly become the ace on this team, making Cole Hamels the #2 which I think Hamels or anyone else on Philly’s side will have no problem with. His 10-2 record and 2.79 ERA will instantly be leading the Phillies. His numbers the last 3 years are also incredible. His numbers versus the NL (17-8; 3.02) show that he should have no problems switching to the National League. Halladay and the Phillies will be a match made in heaven.

Now looking at his contract, money should not be an issue here. The Phillies have the ability to pay the remaining $7.125 million for this season and $15.75 million for next season. He will be a FA after the 2010 season and if he and Philly see another ring during the next two seasons, I could see a contract keeping him here for more years to come.

Now to the players Murphy feels the Phillies should use in the trade. Based off Toronto’s needs, Lou Marson could be a target. And I can’t see any team not wanting the talented outfielder Dominic Brown. As far as pitching, the only player I do not want to part with is JA Happ. He is pitching well and will continue to pitch well. Though sacrificing him will instantly make the top of the rotation better, their back end will be tremendously weak. I have no problem with coughing up either Carlos Carrasco or Kyle Drabek as long as it isn’t both. Throwing Andrew Carpenter’s name in the mix is also not a bad idea.

Murphy throws in some good ideas for packages and the one I agree with the most is the second. The first thing that attracted me to that idea was that there is no trading of Happ. I thought the fifth was more of a dream option as it is the weakest proposed. Back to his second option, Jason Donald or Marson are going to be the offensive kickers in that deal. Both have great potential offensively. Now the deal breaking piece will be Drabek or Brown. I liked him choosing Drabek because it will allow Philly to hold onto Carrasco, who has already shown good potential. Drabek is their top pitching prospect and therefor will help counter the loss of Halladay for Toronto.

He also threw in Andrew Carpenter which was not a bad move as an insurance piece. Now he added a player TBA and I would make that John Mayberry. Mayberry strikes out too much but shows great offensive and defensive skill. Brown is probably going to be the better all-around player than Mayberry and Mayberry’s major league experience could be a plus for Toronto.

There are a lot of options out there in going for Halladay. As long as he keeps his Cy Young form and the Phillies don’t give up too much, I will have no problem in bringing him here.

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